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Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:16 am

DCB wrote:There is no reason to respect 'voter fraud' as a valid concern, because it isn't. The polite way to respond to such concerns is to point out that they are baseless. If someone persists in worrying about things that don't exist they should see a therapist.


You show inflexibility, inability to see issue from another point of view.

I think the fraud-worriers are wrong, or more specifically, they are worrying about the wrong kind of fraud. But they are not mentally ill, they have an entirely differently view of human nature than I do.

Go ahead and make the arguments, I agree with your arguments, but they lead to a deadlock.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:20 am

ilikebeans wrote: The very clear-cut, premeditated strategy by the operatives in the Republican party and right-leaning think tanks is to repress the vote by the poor and minorities, which tend to vote Democratic. In light of many reports that have come out showing no evidence of widespread voter fraud


Ya, I agree about the right wing strategy. But those reports on "no widespread voter fraud" are unconvincing. There is enough wiggle room that somebody on right can continue to think that the fraud is passing undetected.

People make judgements through emotional bias, and they look for evidence later to support the decision they already made. We all do.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby rabble » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:34 am

Huckleby wrote: There is no way to definitively prove either point of view.

Ah. The old "We can't find any evidence of voter fraud, therefore the perpetrators must be extremely good at it" defense.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby ilikebeans » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:11 pm

Huckleby wrote:But those reports on "no widespread voter fraud" are unconvincing.

Voter Fraud A Hot-Button Issue, But Not A Widespread Problem
Republican election chiefs look for voter fraud but so far are finding little evidence of any
GOP Voter ID Campaign Based On Bunk, Data Shows
Numbers show few cases of voter fraud in Wisconsin
Voter fraud convictions in state don't match claims

So what, to your mind, would be "convincing"?

Huckleby wrote:There is enough wiggle room that somebody on right can continue to think that the fraud is passing undetected.

Yes, and there is enough wiggle room that human-caused global warming is a myth. That evolution isn't real. Abstinence-only is an effective birth control strategy. Gay marriage threatens the health of straight marriages. Christians are persecuted in this country. Obama was born in Kenya. All Muslims are terrorists.

Huckleby wrote:People make judgements through emotional bias, and they look for evidence later to support the decision they already made. We all do.

I can tell you this: If the stories I linked to above instead read like "hundreds arrested for ballot impersonation," I and likely most other lefties on this board would see a point to voter ID laws beyond the GOP's political self-interests.

Instead, we have this reality:
In fact, statistics show you are more likely to be struck by lightning than for there to be an instance of voter fraud in any election. But that doesn’t mean election fraud doesn’t exist. But unfortunately for the GOP, the documented cases have largely been among their own.

And the latest:
RNC Cuts Ties With Firm Over Voter Fraud Allegations
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:53 pm

rabble wrote:
Huckleby wrote: There is no way to definitively prove either point of view.

Ah. The old "We can't find any evidence of voter fraud, therefore the perpetrators must be extremely good at it" defense.


I am not sure exactly how people on the right think fraud is occuring. But one can imagine ways to commit voter fraud without it being detected. Most of the stats you see showing infinitesimal levels of fraud are dealing with prosecuted cases. This just confirms to the suspicius mind that the sneaks get away with it.

BTW, the studies I've seen cited in various articles show that levels of voter suppression due to ID requirements are tiny and have negligible effect on elections.

The way that one views the fraud issue largely comes down to a view of human nature, and a perceived corruption nature of Democrats. Republicans think fraud might be enabled by corrupt poll workers. Hey, it has happened.

My point is to accept that the debate is never going to be won. So agree to disagree and craft solutions.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:02 pm

ilikebeans wrote: So what, to your mind, would be "convincing"?

My own mind is 100% convinced that fraud due to weak ID is virtually non-existent.
The paranoia that illegals are voting in large numbers is particularly off. Legal Hispanics are voting in pathetically low numbers. How many illegals are going to risk a felony/deportation to cast a vote?

Again, it's emotions, philosophy and bias that are driving the argument, on both sides really.

ilikebeans wrote:Instead, we have this reality:

The results of that study are not the definitive reality. There is another way to look at it - maybe fraudsters are just not getting caught.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:07 pm

rabble wrote:Ah. The old "We can't find any evidence of voter fraud, therefore the perpetrators must be extremely good at it" defense.


no, they don't have to good at it if the detection system is weak or corrupt.

I'm playing devil's advocate because I would like liberals to soften their uncompromising stance of moral superiority. If this were like civil rights, where there really is a clear-cut moral right and wrong, then an absolute stance works. But the pro Voter ID side has the public on its side (to a point anyway) because a photo ID seems like reasonable form of ID, and they think people should take personal responsibility and get one. Therefore, the focus should be on ways to get photo IDs to all citizens.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby rabble » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:25 pm

Huckleby wrote:
rabble wrote:Ah. The old "We can't find any evidence of voter fraud, therefore the perpetrators must be extremely good at it" defense.


no, they don't have to good at it if the detection system is weak or corrupt.

I'm playing devil's advocate because I would like liberals to soften their uncompromising stance of moral superiority.

Ah. So the conclusion is that every single voter detection system in the entire country is weak or corrupt.

Seriously. I'm supposed to think that's a valid argument? Do I have to subscribe to the possibility of intelligent design too?

I'll do that when the right admits the flying spaghetti monster is a bona fide religion.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:26 pm

rabble wrote:Ah. So the conclusion is that every single voter detection system in the entire country is weak or corrupt.

Huh? No. You mean fraud detection, but most of the right are not alleging massive fraud, they just want to be assured there is none.

I think the more you analyse the way voting works, it is really hard to see how photo ID is going to prevent any fraud. But a lot of people will not think it through carefully, or feel confident that they have covered all the possibilities. Republicans in particular see the voting apparatus as an arm of government, and potentially allied with the corrupt Democrats.

A photo ID seems like a reasonable precaution to most people. That's the bottom line that you can either continue to snarl at or accept.

I see ID requirements as an opportunity for Democrats to expand their base. The lemons into lemonade theory. Make photo ID required EVERYWHERE with government, not just voting, and you will jump-start an expansion of voter registration.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Henry Vilas » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:33 pm

Huck won't be happy until all Americas have a computer chip implanted. It would include a photo, of course. One question, how will the authorities update the identifying mug shot as the person ages?
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:16 pm

actually, I am cool with implanted computer chips.

National ID cards linked to biometric data would be excellent.

At least getting crummy state picture IDs in the hands of the marginalized citizens would be third choice, and should be welcomed by progressives and advocates for the poor.

Our right to privacy does not extend to right to remain anonymous, IMO. Doesn't work in modern world.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Henry Vilas » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:21 pm

These guys thought they were in the modern world:
Image
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Wed Oct 03, 2012 7:53 pm

Yes, the far left and far right see a national ID card as a fascist plot, so we will not have one. So relax.

Instead we have drivers licenses that are easy to fake, 50 seperate state databases that are riddled with errors & contradictions that the Feds are trying to connect, criminal networks that can easily steal identities, our politics are ruined by paranoid theories of an immigrant horde stealing our jobs and elections.

Ya, a shitty ID system is working real well for the country. The rest of the world are adopting national ID systems because they are dumber than us. India's project to ID 600 million is a fool's errand.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby DCB » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:15 pm

Another one bites the dust:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012 ... t-hosemann
Mississippi's controversial new law requiring voters to show photo identification at the polls will not be in effect for the November general election while federal officials review whether the measure is discriminatory, the state said on Tuesday.


The nice folks at Uppity Wisconsin found this nice Esquire article:

John Weaver wrote:While I'm totally supportive of legitimate ballot-security efforts, what is being sold to the GOP base, the media and the courts is complete bullshit. The days of widespread voter fraud, the kind that South Texas patrons and Mayor Daley used in 1960 to help the Kennedy/Johnson ticket, are long gone. Long gone. I've never seen widespread voter fraud, and certainly there is little evidence of it. The various GOP attorneys general should be ashamed to be part of this effort, especially as they've produced damn few true cases of fraud.
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Re: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

Postby Huckleby » Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:47 pm

It is appropriate that many of the photo ID laws are being delayed until after this election, since they were passed quickly to repress the vote. But it's also pretty clear that photo ID is accepted by public and will be the law in the long run. Dems can use the change to their advantage.
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