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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby rabble » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:09 am

Wouldn't the Republican flag be more appropriate? It is, after all, the reason for much of the spread.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Ned Flanders » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:26 pm

Obama's is a universally-known flag of surrender.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby rabble » Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:05 pm

Universally? Huh. Interesting universes you inhabit.

Yours, of course, is a universally known flag of fucking batshit crazy.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby wack wack » Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:07 pm

What has Obama surrendered?
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby O.J. » Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:54 am

79.2?!?! Let's crank this work of art up to 80.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:18 am

77.6%
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Ned Flanders » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:56 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:46 pm

Stu Levitan Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:21 pm wrote:According to Nate Silver, if election were held today, 91.6% likelihood Obama victory (up 23.5% in ONE WEEK!) Forecast for Nov. 6, way down to 80.8%.

Any wonder Willard is getting desperate?


October 1, 2012, 10:51 PM
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... llege-tie/
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Detritus » Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:53 pm

Meade wrote:
Stu Levitan Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:21 pm wrote:According to Nate Silver, if election were held today, 91.6% likelihood Obama victory (up 23.5% in ONE WEEK!) Forecast for Nov. 6, way down to 80.8%.

Any wonder Willard is getting desperate?


October 1, 2012, 10:51 PM
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... llege-tie/

To summarize Nate's findings:
Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby donges » Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:56 pm

Meade wrote:October 1, 2012, 10:51 PM
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... llege-tie/


From the article:
Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:45 am

Post-debate Obama numbers slipping on Intrade.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:43 pm

65.2%

Nate Silver:
So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.

It’s going to take a few more days for the forecast model to catch up to the news, and I don’t think there’s any alternative but to keep an open mind about the polls for right now.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... or-romney/
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:52 pm

Of course Walker was only at 61% with one month to go before his stunning and decisive recall victory. So keep hope alive, Obamabots. He could still turn this thing around.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Steve Vokers » Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:43 pm

Meade wrote:65.2%

Nate Silver:
So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.

It’s going to take a few more days for the forecast model to catch up to the news, and I don’t think there’s any alternative but to keep an open mind about the polls for right now.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... or-romney/


Gee whiz, Laurence, now you're stooping to altering quotes to make it seem more favorable to your position than the quote actually is?

Here's what Nate Silver actually says at the link you provided:

So I would look more positively on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.

It’s going to take a few more days for the forecast model to catch up to the news, and I don’t think there’s any alternative but to keep an open mind about the polls for right now.


Of course, you didn't quote this bit from earlier in the same article:

The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.


Yeah, a whopping 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. I'm sure Mr. Silver is way too smart to bet on odds like those.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:45 pm

Steve Vokers wrote:Gee whiz, Laurence, now you're stooping to altering quotes to make it seem more favorable to your position than the quote actually is?

When I copy and pasted that quote at 3:43 pm today, that was the quote. I did not alter it. It was altered at the NYT. I'm glad you caught that, Steve. Wow! Either Nate Silver or the Times did something very dishonest by not adding an "update".

ADDED: As you can see from this Google search on the quote I copy and pasted, 7 and 22 hours ago, the Silver's quote was as I copied it:

http://www.google.com/search?client=saf ... el+offers+—+but+I’d+have+done+so+more+confidently+before+the+morning’s+jobs+report.++It’s+going+to+take+a+few+more+days+for+the+forecast+model+to+catch+up+to+the+news,+and+I+don’t+think+there’s+any+alternative+but+to+keep+an+open+mind+about+the+polls+for+right+now.&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#hl=en&client=safari&rls=en&sa=X&ei=IsNwULm7DfKgyAH_tYGIDw&spell=1&q=So+I+would+bet+on+Mr.+Romney+right+now+given+the+odds+the+model+offers+—+but+I’d+have+done+so+more+confidently+before+the+mornings+jobs+report.+It’s+going+to+take+a+few+more+days+for+the+forecast+model+to+catch+up+to+the+news,+and+I+don’t+think+there’s+any+alternative+but+to+keep+an+open+mind+about+the+polls+for+right+now.&ved=0CB4QBSgA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=9c2742859e837525&biw=1088&bih=1346

Steve, I believe you owe me an apology.
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