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Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby rabble » Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:34 pm

Crockett wrote:There's always an explanation for markets' movements. All you have to do is watch CNBC for ten minutes and you'll 'learn' why this market did that, or why some piece of data moved some market.

The problem is, 90% of the time its all bullshit and its a storyline that's backfitted to the reality of the markets' supply and demand.
Supply and demand directly affected by the Fed's printing.

So, your explanation is in the ten percent that's not bullshit?
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby Crockett » Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:14 pm

I do love Elizabeth Warren but I fear her honesty will prove a bit too much for her colleagues. Most have much to lose by her line of questioning.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby ArturoBandini » Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:32 pm

Stebben84 wrote:
Crockett wrote:The problem is, 90% of the time its all bullshit and its a storyline that's backfitted to the reality of the markets' supply and demand.


Care to back that up with facts or statistics or do we just take your word for it.

Read any daily Reuters energy market report, or watch CNBC as Crockett recommended. Here is an example. Market reporters almost always state some reasons why the market moved the way it did, or refer to "expert analysts" who cite similar reasons. In reality, they don't know why the market moved, so they are retroactively attributing plausible causes to the market movements observed. If they were really able to accurately pinpoint cause and effect in commodity markets and pricing, they would be billionaires not anonymous analysts working for investment firms. There is no control experiment to isolate causality, nor is there any way to aggregate the reasons that thousands of individual traders used as the basis of their trading decisions that day, so in effect, most all explanations about price movements are bullshit to some degree. And many times the cited reasons have little to do with energy infrastructure directly (e.g. pipeline burst or oil field discovery), but rather with aggregate economic conditions and broad national/international political trends.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby O.J. » Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:44 pm

ArturoBandini wrote:Market reporters almost always state some reasons why the market moved the way it did, or refer to "expert analysts" who cite similar reasons. In reality, they don't know why the market moved, so they are retroactively attributing plausible causes to the market movements observed.


I agree that it is practically impossible to attribute a single day's market movement to a specific event, but this isn't rocket science when I state that the price of gas typically goes up during the first few months of the year, simply due to the logistics of oil refinery.

Once again...

Crude oil prices are the biggest factor driving gas prices, but how the crude oil is processed can also play a significant role in price increases. The petroleum industry’s switchover to summer-blend fuels, a process that begins each February and ends June 1, creates challenges that also affect retail fuels prices. Since final implementation of the Clean Air Act Amendments in 2000, the seasonal transition to summer-blend fuel has helped gasoline prices climb significantly before they reached their peak. Comparing prices the first week in February to their seasonal peak, increases have ranged from a low of 20 cents in 2003 to a high of $1.13 in 2008; on average, the average annual increase is 54 cents per gallon.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby ArturoBandini » Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:57 pm

O.J. wrote:I agree that it is practically impossible to attribute a single day's market movement to a specific event, but this isn't rocket science when I state that the price of gas typically goes up during the first few months of the year, simply due to the logistics of oil refinery.
No argument. However, during the refinery turnaround process which puts a steady upward pressure on prices over weeks or months, there is a lot of noise in the market price, and analysts invent plausible reasonings on a daily basis to explain these marginal movements (or even for intraday spikes or dips). And in the context of seasonal changes, the springtime turnaround season might not have the magnitude of price effect that analysts were predicting (either higher or lower), and then a secondary set of reasons are brought into play, including broader economic issues like monetary policy, domestic policy, etc.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby O.J. » Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:59 pm

Agreed.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby ArturoBandini » Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:02 pm

O.J. wrote:Agreed.
Yeah, after posting that last part, I thought, "Why did I even type that? I agree with everything said so far..."
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby fennel » Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:18 pm

I thought we were here to swoon over Grandma Elizabeth.
What's with with this oily digression?
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby Leroy Gates » Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:29 am

"...she saw an opportunity to score a cheap demagogic point by asking an irrelevant question to witnesses who did not anticipate the question because the question is of importance only to politicians seeking headlines, not to people truly interested in financial reform and enforcement."
http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/02/elizabeth-warrens-heroic-senate-demagoguery/
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby snoqueen » Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:53 am

Geez, it was of interest to me. And I am not a politician seeking headlines.

Court trials are often avoided because they're not a slam-dunk. An enormous amount of information must be assembled and interpreted. That costs money and other resources, which are not unlimited, and takes away from other ongoing investigations.

As Warren showed, regulators have been taking a "safer" path and seeking settlements, which of course financial institutions write off as nothing more than the cost of doing business. Judging by the behavior of those (supposedly) being regulated, there isn't much of a deterrent effect.

If we prioritized regulation more highly and funded it better, we might see more convictions. I can't imagine why that hasn't been budgeted. Can you?

And don't miss Warren's other point, which was prosecutors at lower levels seem to have plenty of money, time, and energy to go after smaller fish. While that was not what she was questioning the people at the hearing about, she wanted the public to take note. Somehow these big fish aren't subject to the same level of vigorous enforcement.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby bdog » Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:09 am

Crockett wrote:The problem is, 90% of the time its all bullshit and its a storyline that's backfitted to the reality of the markets' supply and demand.

This describes Johnny Miller's golf analysis too. He knows exactly where a shot went so he tailors his comments on how a player's swing caused it.

He would be lost if shown the swing first then had to tell us what happened with the shot.

IMHO of course.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby SlayerDave » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:27 am

How did Jack Lew receive confirmation votes from every single Democrat?

I would have thought Baldwin and Warren were two possible no votes.

Lew has investments in the Cayman Islands, and signed a very shady deal with Citi. Or is that only wrong when someone not picked by Obama does it? Disappointing.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby HawkHead » Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:30 am

SlayerDave wrote:How did Jack Lew receive confirmation votes from every single Democrat?

I would have thought Baldwin and Warren were two possible no votes.

Lew has investments in the Cayman Islands, and signed a very shady deal with Citi. Or is that only wrong when someone not picked by Obama does it? Disappointing.


Having investments in the Cayman Islands is completely legal. It is not reporting them to the IRS and not paying tax on the income if you want to bring the money back into the USA that is illegal.

The link between finance and the government does concern me. Can't them find someone else who hasn't worked at Citi, Goldman Sachs et al?
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby SlayerDave » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:12 am

HawkHead wrote:
SlayerDave wrote:How did Jack Lew receive confirmation votes from every single Democrat?

I would have thought Baldwin and Warren were two possible no votes.

Lew has investments in the Cayman Islands, and signed a very shady deal with Citi. Or is that only wrong when someone not picked by Obama does it? Disappointing.


Having investments in the Cayman Islands is completely legal. It is not reporting them to the IRS and not paying tax on the income if you want to bring the money back into the USA that is illegal.

The link between finance and the government does concern me. Can't them find someone else who hasn't worked at Citi, Goldman Sachs et al?


I agree, Cayman investments are a complete non-issue. Just noting that that perspective wasn't exactly prevalent amongst the Democratic party in say, October.
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Re: Elizabeth Warren: Kicking Ass, Taking Names

Postby HawkHead » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:24 am

SlayerDave wrote:
HawkHead wrote:
SlayerDave wrote:How did Jack Lew receive confirmation votes from every single Democrat?

I would have thought Baldwin and Warren were two possible no votes.

Lew has investments in the Cayman Islands, and signed a very shady deal with Citi. Or is that only wrong when someone not picked by Obama does it? Disappointing.


Having investments in the Cayman Islands is completely legal. It is not reporting them to the IRS and not paying tax on the income if you want to bring the money back into the USA that is illegal.

The link between finance and the government does concern me. Can't them find someone else who hasn't worked at Citi, Goldman Sachs et al?


I agree, Cayman investments are a complete non-issue. Just noting that that perspective wasn't exactly prevalent amongst the Democratic party in say, October.


I believe the issue was the alleged non-reporting by Romney. The IRS a couple of times has granted "amnesty" to tax payers who haven't properly reported foreign bank accounts and foreign income. They file the correct form and pay the taxes and a fine and the IRS won't throw you in jail on top of the penalties and tax.

Romney wouldn't release his back returns which would have definitively shown if he did or didn't illegally use foreign accounts and had to come clean.

The Democrats point was the non-reporting and paying of taxes due.
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