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Impressions of the Debate

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby wack wack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:09 am

Huckleby wrote:
Romney hasn't won "the day" if by that you mean the election. He won the debate season, obviously. I still give Obama a slight edge on the election.


Oh come on, Romney won the debate season? Not only not obvious, but not true. Not by a long shot.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:09 am

Ned Flanders wrote:Red Bob stayed out of it, for the most part.

Looks like Ned is channeling Joe McCarthy again.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Comrade » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:40 am

wack wack wrote:
Huckleby wrote:
Romney hasn't won "the day" if by that you mean the election. He won the debate season, obviously. I still give Obama a slight edge on the election.


Oh come on, Romney won the debate season? Not only not obvious, but not true. Not by a long shot.


Hmmm, the movement in the polls since the debates began would indicate otherwise.....at least with the voters.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Huckleby » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:42 am

wack wack wrote: Oh come on, Romney won the debate season? Not only not obvious, but not true. Not by a long shot.


Well, then the millions of people who have been polled over the past two months mean nothing.

What is your indicator for how the election is trending that means more than polling?
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Slick Willy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:41 am

When Bill Clinton said that Obama was cool on the outside but burned for America on the inside, he was trying to spin a negative into a positive. Obama has not been very charismatic since he took office, but we, as his supporters, trusted that he was very intelligent and capable and had our best interests in mind. We viewed him as a masterful debater and speaker who was exactly what Clinton described him as. We were proud to have someone in our corner who could debate with the best of 'em, even if he was a rather stoic figure. We trusted in his strength, but when Obama lost that first debate so pitifully, our whole view of him changed along with the views of the voters on the fence. What did we have left after that performance? He and Biden tried to make up ground after that and won their subsequent debates by very narrow margins, but it did nothing to help their likeability factor at all, which was already pretty low for Obama. Pair that with no hopeful vision for the future, and middle-of-the-road voters began looking at those well spoken and nice looking guys on the right as a seemingly moderate alternative. Romney was getting a fresh look, and nobody in the middle really cared that Romney flip-flopped, because he was telling them what they want to hear right now.

Despite being behind, Romney is still gaining in the polls overall, and even though I'd love to see Obama squeak out a win, I just have a bad feeling that Romney will do even better than the polls are showing (except for Gallup, which already has him way ahead), just like what happened when Obama won in '08. Obama was ahead of McCain in the polls, but he won by an even larger margin than they predicted, because momentum was on his side then.

If Obama had picked Hillary as his VP, most of these undecided women that Romney is gunning for now wouldn't even be in play. Obama's ball of yarn is unraveling, but hopefully not fast enough to lose come next Tuesday.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby wack wack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:20 pm

Obama embarrassed Romney in the last two debates. Romney is nothing but a paper tiger. he could've stayed home for the last two debates, as he added nothing after the first. Obama exposed the fact that Romney's mastered the rhetoric, but not the issues.

Romney is a bully and a boss, but no leader. How anyone who saw all three debates sees Romney as anything but a complete fraud is pretty unbelievable.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby kurt_w » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:27 pm

Slick Willy wrote:Despite being behind, Romney is still gaining in the polls overall [...] Obama's ball of yarn is unraveling, but hopefully not fast enough to lose come next Tuesday.


I'm curious what you base that on. It sure looks to me like Romney's gains after the first debate came to an abrupt halt about two weeks ago. Since October 10:

    * FiveThirtyEight shows Obama's odds increasing from 61.1% to 70.3%

    * Princeton Election Consortium shows Obama gaining about 12 votes in the Electoral College projections

    * RealClearPolitics shows Romney's lead in the popular vote drop from 1.5% to 0.6%

    * TPM shows Romney losing his lead in the popular vote, with Obama's margin gaining 1.7%.
Are there any reasonably well respected polling aggregators out there that actually show "Romney still gaining"?

I'd say that Obama's lead peaked on Oct. 4. Romney made huge gains from Oct. 4 to Oct. 10. On or around the 10th, that trend came to a screeching halt. Since Oct. 10, there's been a slight shift towards Obama in the popular vote, and a larger one in the odds of winning the Electoral College.

Neither candidate seems to have a lot of momentum right now, but insofar as there's any detectable trend over the past two weeks, it's been a slight shift back towards Obama.

It's remarkable how fast and distinct the turnarounds were on Oct. 3-4 and Oct. 10-11. The fact that those dates coincide with the first two debates is pretty striking.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:39 pm

Here is one prominent, uh, person or pundit, or uh,... what would you call her? Anyhow, here is her impression.

Ann Coulter Calls Obama A 'Retard'

Keeping it classy right wing style. I can't wait for other winger pundits to come to her defense.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby pjbogart » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:43 pm

kurt_w wrote:Neither candidate seems to have a lot of momentum right now, but insofar as there's any detectable trend over the past two weeks, it's been a slight shift back towards Obama.


Yes, but as Bludgeon would point out, the slight shift to Obama actually is a positive for Romney because he received a significant bounce after the first debate but Obama received a very incremental bounce from the second debate, which actually shows that Romney won all three debates.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby wack wack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:46 pm

Slick Willy wrote:He and Biden tried to make up ground after that and won their subsequent debates by very narrow margins, but it did nothing to help their likeability factor at all, which was already pretty low for Obama.


Obama's likeability was low? How do you figure?
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:54 pm

pjbogart wrote:the slight shift to Obama actually is a positive for Romney because he received a significant bounce after the first debate but Obama received a very incremental bounce from the second debate, which actually shows that Romney won all three debates.


Which in turn shows that Obama actually lost the debates to McCain and never was actually elected president. Romney had opened up a space time continuum and thanks to his unprecedented performance in the first debate, he is actually our current president and everything you saw last night was a figment or your own parallel universe.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby DCB » Tue Oct 23, 2012 3:53 pm

Sandi wrote:
Missing from the debate was any discussion of climate change. Crowley claims she wanted to ask a question about that, but didn't have time.



Wasn't missing, it is a non-issue.

Oh wait, there a brief discussion of it during the vice-presidential debate:
http://grist.org/politics/climate-silen ... ht-stupid/

Good to know George H.W. Bush is going to get right on that.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Bludgeon » Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:15 pm

kurt_w wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:You could almost argue that Obama's "victories" in the 2nd and 3rd debate did as much to hurt him as his loss in the first debate.


You could argue anything at all. But ... why?

Come on, Bludgeon. Show at least a smidgeon of self-respect here. We know you're not an idiot; but when you post this silly partisan nonsense it makes you look like one.

The first debate was pretty much a disaster for Obama. We get that. But he's clearly won the subsequent debates, including last night's.

No, Romney didn't do badly enough to cripple his campaign or anything like that, and the debates may not have given Obama a huge boost in the polls. But it's pure nonsense to claim that Obama's victories (not "victories") in the last two debates did anything to hurt his campaign. The only question is whether and how much they helped.

Claiming that the last two debates "did as much to hurt him as his loss in the first debate" only detracts from whatever else you might post here. Are you sure you don't want to walk back that comment?

Cripes, Kurt. Honestly how do you "win" a presidential debate? They're not really debates in the classical sense; and who won or lost is not scored by a debate judge. Some media company runs a poll and produces a popular opinion about who "won". Even these polls have samples, so who's to say? Maybe CBS has the sample D+9 like half the media polls in the states and nationally. Which is irrelevant. I guess you could say "Obama clearly won the media polls about the debate amid those whom the polling agencies claim are a representative sample." But what's that worth really? In these terms, I don't care who won *any* of the debates.

Yet the significance of Romney's victory in the first debate is palpable, and I would define that as a victory in other terms.

Re the first paragraph, I suppose you can score debates like that if you want to, I don't personally find it to be a valuable endeavor.

I would put it like this: strategically, what is the political impact of a candidate's tactic in said debate? Scoring points in a debate is arguably outside the purpose of the presentation. It's votes, not points, you want. So it's a question of what kind of impression you're leaving on the public. What the voters care about is the character of the person they will be looking toward to repair our damaged economy after this election. So...

Liberals wanted Obama to 'put up a fight' in the last two debates; the Obama campaign obliged, I suppose to keep the base from panicking. But these sophomoric antics did him no favors with the middle electorate that matters. They just tune it out the same way they tune out their naive 20-year-olds on an election year. What works for kids (and the perennially childish), does not work for sober adults with a rising cost of living, working harder for a lower standard of living. They're looking for somebody with the character to do the job, and they're not to allured by a president with the temerity to play a teenager.

I would characterize Obama as losing the second two debates in the tactical sense. Instead of Romney having to work to raise himself to the stature of the president, the president threw his advantage away on purpose to try to lower them both. It's irrelevant to me how "low" Mitt Romney may be in the mind of the average lefty; but it's significant to me to note that, however low that may be, the president (at liberals' behest) lowered himself right down there. In what way that's meant to improve the prospects of his campaign, I'd be glad to hear.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby Bludgeon » Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:17 pm

Stebben84 wrote:Which in turn shows that Obama actually lost the debates to McCain and never was actually elected president. Romney had opened up a space time continuum and thanks to his unprecedented performance in the first debate, he is actually our current president and everything you saw last night was a figment or your own parallel universe.


Best. Reply. Ever.
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Re: Impressions of the Debate

Postby kurt_w » Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:57 pm

Bludgeon wrote:Cripes, Kurt. Honestly how do you "win" a presidential debate?


Gosh, I don't know. You yourself seem to have no problem at all saying that Obama "lost" the first debate ... But somehow when it comes to the other debates, the concept of "winning" or "losing" gets all postmodern-y.

That contrast tells me that you're not here to discuss things reasonably; you're here to vigorously promote Romney's case, on every single point, regardless of how laughable it is.

We already have one GOP commissar on the Forum -- Ned Flanders -- who can always be counted on to call up "down" or black "white" in the service of his mission. But how many Baghdad Bobs does the Forum need?

Bludgeon, wouldn't you rather get the respect that comes with talking about stuff honestly, even if it occasionally means admitting that, yeah, last night Obama did pretty well?
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