MOBILE USERS: m.isthmus.com
Connect with Isthmus on Twitter · Facebook · Flickr · Newsletters 
Thursday, April 24, 2014 |  Madison, WI: 48.0° F  Light Rain Fog/Mist
Collapse Photo Bar

Obama and same-sex marriage

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 13, 2012 10:40 am

pjbogart wrote:I hope you realize that "less likely to vote for Obama" is not a sampling of undecided voters. If Meade tells you
Right. When I first heard about this poll on fox news, I assumed it was bogus for the reason you mention. But I looked online to see if there was anything there, and it does show that self-identified independents are twice as likely to be moved against Obama because of this decision.

I do appreciate your and others arguments on how this issue will play out. Outcome is uncertain, you may be proven correct. But the evidence is stronger, imo, that Obama will be hurt by the decision in conservative-leaning swing states.

pjbogart wrote:A healthy majority of Americans (60%) say that gay marriage will not affect their vote.
I expect the actual behavior will be 95% or higher. The 5% or 1% who do care deeply enough to affect their vote is what matters.

pjbogart wrote:And gay marriage is still supported by 51% and opposed by 45%. Obviously those numbers change significantly in conservative states like North Carolina, especially if you conduct the poll as people are voting in the Republican primary.
The polls in NC are strongly against gay marriage, regardless of that vote. (BTW,I won't dismiss a 22% margin vote, even if it was held during Republican primary and on Reagan's birthday. Gay marriage referendums draw huge numbers.)

Don't believe for a second that Americans support gay marriage 51% to 45%. (I have not heard that optimistic poll result, btw) You find out what people really think when they vote. A national poll means ZERO, marriage is a state issue.

Regarding pres politics, we have an electoral college, and most states are locked-up blue or red. To the extent that polls matter, state-polls in conservative-leaning swing states like Florida, NC, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are all we should pay attention to.

The country is not close politically to adopting gay marriage from sea-to-shining-sea. We are a decade or decades away. FOCUS ON THE STATE LEVEL VOTING. That is where the truth comes out. So far the score there is 30-0. Granted, the ground is shifting, gay marriage is inevitable. Yet even in liberal Minnesota, the issue hangs very much in the balance.

From the standpoint of political advantage, Obama is almost certainly several years premature, and he will be hurt in the electoral college battle.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby pjbogart » Sun May 13, 2012 5:09 pm

Huckleby wrote:Don't believe for a second that Americans support gay marriage 51% to 45%. (I have not heard that optimistic poll result, btw) You find out what people really think when they vote. A national poll means ZERO, marriage is a state issue.


HUCK! Dude, the Gallup poll THAT YOU POSTED A LINK TO was the source of the 51-45% statistic. I got the statistic FROM YOU. They mention it towards the bottom of your linked story from Politico.

Huck's link wrote:Overall, respondents approved of the president's support of gay marriage 51-45, which roughly mirrors the split between voters on gay marriage in general found in earlier Gallup polls.


Are you going to accept their poll on independent voters but reject the rest of the poll?
pjbogart
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6020
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:57 pm

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Henry Vilas » Sun May 13, 2012 5:32 pm

Henry Vilas
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 19177
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 8:57 pm
Location: Name sez it all

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 13, 2012 6:44 pm

pjbogart wrote:Are you going to accept their poll on independent voters but reject the rest of the poll?


No, OK, I hadn't taken note of that number, and I thought national number was closer to 50-50.

What matters is how people vote at state level in Ohio, WI, Missouri, other swing states. Gay marriage support is polling much higher (about 7 percentage points, from what I heard on the wireless this week) than is reflected in voting.

Right wing media has been all over this story, trying to dampen enthusiasm for Obama's announcement. I certainly wish I could be more celebratory.

I really, really want Obama to win next fall, I care much more than any election in my lifetime. It's not that I hate Mitt Romney, I suspect he is OK, but I fear the tea party could seize effective control of the Senate, and we need Obama as a bulwark against insanity.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby pjbogart » Sun May 13, 2012 8:20 pm

Huckleby wrote:I really, really want Obama to win next fall, I care much more than any election in my lifetime.


I do too, Huck. But I'm not willing to throw an entire group of Americans under the bus in order to win. Right is right, wrong is wrong. And this isn't simply about marriage. Wisconsin happens to have a Constitution that lists sexual orientation as a protected class but there are many places in this country where you can still be LEGALLY discriminated against for being a homosexual.

I have a very good friend, an Army Captain, who was on her way to Afghanistan to serve her country when she was shot three times by a crazed lunatic at Fort Hood. At the time that she was shot she could have been kicked out of the military simply for being gay. She's done far more for our country than you or I, yet even after being in a committed relationship for over ten years she still can't marry her partner. Don't tell her she needs to wait another ten years before she can be treated equally. She deserves it now. Like, yesterday.
pjbogart
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6020
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:57 pm

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 13, 2012 8:34 pm

pjbogart wrote:I do too, Huck. But I'm not willing to throw an entire group of Americans under the bus in order to win. Right is right, wrong is wrong.

Well, I'll correct the obvious: state legislatures are going to take decades to pass gay marriage. The possible fast track is through the Supreme Court. Nothing is more important to gay rights cause than re-electing Barak Hussein Obama. The tactical move of delaying a formal announcement until after the election would not be throwing anybody under the bus. Au contraire.

You're correct: right is right, wrong is wrong. Yet life is complicated. You don't want the top elected official to get too far ahead of public opinion. Big social change necessarily comes from the bottom up.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby bdog » Sun May 13, 2012 8:44 pm

Could be this will lead to a new way of doing things - speak up for what is right and damn the political consequences.

I am undecided on who I will vote for President.

This helps Obama, for me at least.
bdog
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 3184
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:26 am

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Mon May 14, 2012 8:12 am

bdog wrote:Could be this will lead to a new way of doing things - speak up for what is right and damn the political consequences.


I pray that Republicans adopt this strategy. To an extent, they've done so with Paul Ryan budget, but they stop short on specifics. AFter all, it's a moral imperative to cut spending rather than steal from the children.

If JFK had "done the right thing" and offered a full-throated support for interacial marriage, it's a 100% certainty that Republicans would have controled the presidency in 60's, civil rights legislation would have been delayed by a decade or more. Hard to say what other social progress would have been stunted by different Supreme Court composition.

If Abraham Lincoln had "done the right thing" and called for abolition of slavery in campaign, he never would have been elected.

There is a place for clear and hard positions. It's called the House of Representatives.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon May 14, 2012 9:26 am

I see the U.S. Supreme Court, not Congress, as the vehicle to legalize gay marriage throughout the nation. If Obama is reelected and gets to appoint a couple more to our highest bench, the Court might rule that outlawing gay marriage violates the Constitution.
Henry Vilas
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 19177
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 8:57 pm
Location: Name sez it all

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby snoqueen » Mon May 14, 2012 9:58 am

I also think if Obama got out there and made a few more supposedly-risky statements he might draw many more young voters to his side and to the polls.

He could start with "the full range of women's health care should be legal and readily available, and those who oppose it should concentrate their efforts on persuading other Americans, not trying to hijack the legal system to carry out the will of just one of the country's many religions."

Then he might try finding a way to lighten some of the huge burden of student loans young people took on believing it was the way to a better life.

And he could make sure returning soldiers get a full range of healthcare support including long-term treatment for PTSD, along with research on why it's so endemic among returnees from our present round of wars.

Then he could move on to support for working people with young children who need daycare, now that said wars are supposedly winding down.

Obama has more support out here, just waiting to happen, if he offers support to real people in return.
snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 10984
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon May 14, 2012 6:24 pm

To those who say Obama's announcement will hurt him politically, it works both ways.

Romney donor pulls support, backs Obama, over same-sex marriage

The election is a half a year away (a lifetime in the election world).
Henry Vilas
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 19177
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 8:57 pm
Location: Name sez it all

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Detritus » Mon May 14, 2012 8:07 pm

Huckleby wrote:If JFK had "done the right thing" and offered a full-throated support for interacial marriage, it's a 100% certainty that Republicans would have controled the presidency in 60's, civil rights legislation would have been delayed by a decade or more. Hard to say what other social progress would have been stunted by different Supreme Court composition.

100% certainty in counterfactual, speculative history is quite the feat, particularly when the counterfactuality is so complete.

In any case, I'd hardly characterize Obama's support for same-sex marriage as "full-throated." "Tepid," "reluctantly forced upon him," or "bowing to the inevitable" seem more accurate. Now, if he came out, divorced Michelle, and moved Arne Duncan into the White House you'd have something there.
Detritus
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2313
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 9:42 pm

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Mon May 14, 2012 9:37 pm

Detritus wrote:
Huckleby wrote:If JFK had "done the right thing" and offered a full-throated support for interacial marriage, it's a 100% certainty that Republicans would have controled the presidency in 60's, civil rights legislation would have been delayed by a decade or more. Hard to say what other social progress would have been stunted by different Supreme Court composition.

100% certainty in counterfactual, speculative history is quite the feat

The country was completly united in its opposition to interacial marriage in 1959. I've read that 95% of America, blacks and whites, opposed interacial marriage in the late 1950's. Hard to even imagine what issue to compare it to today - pedophilia? It is not speculative to suggest the obvious, that Kennedy or any politician could not have won election advocating interracial marriage in 1959.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Mon May 14, 2012 9:41 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:To those who say Obama's announcement will hurt him politically, it works both ways.

Romney donor pulls support, backs Obama, over same-sex marriage

The election is a half a year away (a lifetime in the election world).


I think everybody understands it's a complex issue that cuts both ways.

I focus on the swing states because that's what matters most.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5505
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Previous

Return to National Politics & Government

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Donald and 3 guests

moviesmusiceats
Select a Movie
Select a Theater


FacebookcommentsViewedForum
  ISTHMUS FLICKR

Promotions Contact us Privacy Policy Jobs Newsletters RSS
Collapse Photo Bar