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Violence in America: five graphs

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Violence in America: five graphs

Postby kurt_w » Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:44 am

In the ever-expanding gun thread, Detritus linked to this collection of Twelve facts about guns and mass shootings in the United States (a correction to one of the twelve facts was added here: Mythbusting: Israel and Switzerland are not gun-toting utopias).

Unfortunately, in that fast-moving thread, and with Detritus having posted only a bare link (no additional comment), many people might have breezed on past. If you haven't read that Wonkblog post, you really should do so.

I think some of the graphs there are important enough that they're worth re-posting here. I'll also add a couple of others that I created myself.

Graph 1: The US has far more deadly crime than other developed countries. In the US, rates of deadly assaults peaked a generation ago, and have been declining rapidly. In many other developed countries, rates have also been declining, though this is harder to see because their rates of deadly assault are so much lower than ours.

    Image

Graph 2: Within the US, the South is by far the most violent region, while the Northeast is the safest.

    Image

Graph 3: Gun ownership rates in the US are also declining over time.

    Image

Graph 4: When it comes to homicide by firearm, the US is an extreme outlier among wealthy nations. (Yes, I made this figure myself. Data sources are here and here).

    Image

Graph 5: Another way of visualizing firearm homicide rates in western countries.

    Image
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:52 am

What's up with Albania. That seems so random.

Thanks for the graphs Kurt.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby kurt_w » Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:56 am

Albania was deeply messed up by its experience under its own weird brand of communism. I don't know why that makes Albanians shoot each other at nearly-American rates. Interesting question, I guess.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:01 am

http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/albania

https://www.osac.gov/Pages/ContentRepor ... ?cid=12106

It would appear Albania has fairly permissive gun laws, and a high level of violence related to organized crime.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby rabble » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:18 am

It surprises me that firearm ownership percentage is down, considering the news reports of massive gun sales after Obama took office, and after the last election.

That must mean either the number of gun owners is not keeping up with the population and/or the current gun owners just keep buying more guns.

Or maybe the preppers are just expanding their armories.

It doesn't surprise me that there's more gunplay in the south than elsewhere.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:07 am

rabble wrote:That must mean either the number of gun owners is not keeping up with the population and/or the current gun owners just keep buying more guns.


The ownership graph is number of households with a gun in the home so it's the later. Gun owners buying more guns wouldn't change the graph.

rabble wrote:It surprises me that firearm ownership percentage is down, considering the news reports of massive gun sales after Obama took office, and after the last election.


What, you missed that spike in pistol and shotgun ownership the graph circa 2008-2009? It's not a huge spike but that would be a given since the most vocalized reason for buying guns was "because Obama was going to take away gun rights" :roll: and that was mostly vocalized by current gun owners.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby rabble » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:50 am

Francis Di Domizio wrote:
rabble wrote:That must mean either the number of gun owners is not keeping up with the population and/or the current gun owners just keep buying more guns.


The ownership graph is number of households with a gun in the home so it's the later. Gun owners buying more guns wouldn't change the graph.

Are we talking about graph 3?
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:53 am

rabble wrote:Are we talking about graph 3?


Yes

Though thinking about it more, the graph probably does reflect the former, but doesn't really indicate lower gun sales. Combine a reported rise in gun purchase background checks (apparently no one is tracking actual gun sales) and it indicates the later as well.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:30 pm

Interesting. Homicide rates..
Image
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby kurt_w » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:44 pm

Yes, Ned, the data on homicide rates are interesting.

The US is tied with Yemen and Turkmenistan, for 98th place. Countries with lower homicide rates than the US include:

Monaco, Palau, Hong Kong, Iceland, Japan, Singapore, French Polynesia, Brunei, Austria, Bahrain, Guam, Norway, Macau, Oman, Slovenia, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Federated States of Micronesia, Italy, New Zealand, Qatar, Vanuatu, Australia, Bhutan, China, Malta, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Tonga, France, Netherlands, Poland, Samoa, Tunisia, Egypt, Ireland, Portugal, Serbia, United Kingdom, Andorra, Hungary, Armenia, Croatia, Morocco, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Slovakia, Somalia, Canada, Maldives, Vietnam, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Jordan, Macedonia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Bulgaria, Iraq, Romania, Israel, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Finland, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Syria, Afghanistan, Luxembourg, Mauritius, South Korea, Bangladesh, Fiji, Liechtenstein, Nepal, Libya, Iran, Latvia, Uzbekistan, Chile, Taiwan, Turkey, Argentina, Cambodia, Djibouti, India, Montenegro, Sri Lanka, Solomon Islands, Niger, Albania, and Palestine.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:59 pm

How about crime rates?
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby kurt_w » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:04 pm

In another thread, somebody claimed that gun-based homicide rates in Britain are "up sharply".

Here (source)are gun homicide numbers (total incidents) per year, in the UK (actually just England and Wales; I can't find annual data for the UK as a whole):

1995 70
1996 49
1997 59
1998 49
1999 62
2000 No data
2001 96
2002 No data
2003 68
2004 73
2005 50
2006 59
2007 53
2008 38
2009 41

The last two years are the lowest on record (and this trend would be even stronger if adjusted for population).

On a per-capita basis, the US firearm homicide rates are approximately 30 to 40 times as high as those in the UK.

If the decline in US gun-based homicide rates continues, we might eventually reach the UK's current rate ... sometime around 2045.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby rabble » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:16 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote:
rabble wrote:Are we talking about graph 3?


Yes

Though thinking about it more, the graph probably does reflect the former, but doesn't really indicate lower gun sales. Combine a reported rise in gun purchase background checks (apparently no one is tracking actual gun sales) and it indicates the later as well.

I just wanted to make sure you were talking about the graph that says "Percentage of households" on the left hand side, not "number of households."
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:44 pm

Ned Flanders wrote:How about crime rates?


I guess it depends on what the "crime" is. From what I saw, the US is tops of the list with European countries trailing behind. The problem is what is defined as the "crime" and how each of the countries categorize it. Also, the earlier graphs were homicides per 100,000 people and that is how they determined the ranking.This is what I found and it is only the raw numbers, not the per capita numbers:

Image

It's one of a couple different maps, but the others said about the same thing. Take it for what you will.
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Re: Violence in America: five graphs

Postby fisticuffs » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:47 pm

Ned would have you believe America is so safe that we don't need common sense in our gun laws yet so dangerous that we must arm ourselves at all times.
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