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going up?.....gas prices, that is...

If it's news, but not politics, then it goes here.

Postby Mister_A_In_Madison » Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:40 am

Marvell wrote:
Sheppy wrote:
Mister_A_In_Madison wrote:Should not trains connecting larger metropolitan areas come before too much effort is put into cross-town or cross-county ventures?


There already is a train connecting Milwaukee and Chicago, 7 trips daily. And d train connectiing Chicago and Minneapolis via Milwaukee. So the large metropolitan areas in Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota are already connected by rail.


Oooh, snap!


More like a snap on Madison not being a large metropolitan area... which was part of the original context for my statement.

It seems that if Madison really wanted to play well with the bigger cities, it would think about becoming a connection point in the larger rail grid.
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Postby Matt Logan » Wed Sep 10, 2008 2:08 pm

So if you have absorbed the latest news cycle, you have probably heard the story entitled Study Blames Speculation For Oil Price Hike. Most of you are probably thinking: I knew the speculators were to blame! But before you close the case of who to blame (besides yourselves) for high gas prices, you might want to check out this story:

Oil Price Speculation: Masters back on the attack
[quote]Bloomberg also cites critics of Masters’s earlier work, who say he lacks access to the data needed to draw his conclusions. Walter Lukken, acting chairman of the CFTC, is among those who question the validity of Masters’ data, it adds.

“Just as weather forecasters have no effect on the weather, energy speculators have no effect on the price of oil,'’ Scott Talbott, a lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents investors, told Bloomberg. “His fallacy is that he ignores the laws of supply and demand, which determine the price of oil.â€Â
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Postby beesorry » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:45 am

[quote="Matt Logan"]So if you have absorbed the latest news cycle, you have probably heard the story entitled Study Blames Speculation For Oil Price Hike. Most of you are probably thinking: I knew the speculators were to blame! But before you close the case of who to blame (besides yourselves) for high gas prices, you might want to check out this story:

Oil Price Speculation: Masters back on the attack
[quote]Bloomberg also cites critics of Masters’s earlier work, who say he lacks access to the data needed to draw his conclusions. Walter Lukken, acting chairman of the CFTC, is among those who question the validity of Masters’ data, it adds.

“Just as weather forecasters have no effect on the weather, energy speculators have no effect on the price of oil,'’ Scott Talbott, a lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents investors, told Bloomberg. “His fallacy is that he ignores the laws of supply and demand, which determine the price of oil.â€Â
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Postby Matt Logan » Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:42 pm

beesorry wrote:There is no way when oil prices rise in reaction to a potential hurricane that it is based on anything but speculation. Give it up will ya.

Actually, oil prices have fallen today - gas prices are up - so I think you meant to suggest that speculators (alone) are the reason why gas prices are up. Here is the situation right now:

1) Demand compared to last year has been rising.
2) Stocks of gasoline are now below average ranges.
3) Ike is aimed right at the heart of texas refinery country.

Here is your homework assignment, due 10/01/2008:

Q(1): Let's say there was no speculator market and Ike causes a significant shutdown in gasoline production. What do you think would happen to gasoline prices?

Q(2): Now, let's re-add the speculators to the equation, other factors being equal. What do you think would happen to gasoline prices?

Q(3): Compare the average price/gallon of gasoline from 9/10/2008 - 9/24/2008 for the two scenarios. Is the price in the scenario without speculators higher or lower than the scenario with speculators.

Q(4): Why?
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:17 am

beesorry wrote:There is no way when oil prices rise in reaction to a potential hurricane that it is based on anything but speculation. Give it up will ya.

CNN's iReport has footage of some panic gas buying going on in North Carolina last night. Is this the fault of the speculators in the energy commodities market?
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:24 am

beesorry wrote:There is no way when oil prices rise in reaction to a potential hurricane that it is based on anything but speculation. Give it up will ya.

More data to help you with your homework assignment on gas price speculation:

Gulf oil producers prepare to take on Ike
Hurricane Ike was also affecting land facilities, including refineries.

"Expect all or nearly all refineries in the Houston Ship Channel area [Texas City, Houston, Pasadena, Deer Park, Baytown] to be offline beginning tomorrow," said Petral spokesman Dan Lippe, in a Thursday e-mail to CNNMoney.com, noting that some refineries had already been shut down.

ConocoPhillips said it was shutting down its refinery in Sweeney, Texas, and it expected the shutdown to be complete Thursday. The company said that Houston-area employees were being released from work ahead of the storm.

Shell Oil, owned by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), said the Shell Deer Park refinery and chemical plant near Houston was beginning to shut down Thursday. The company said the Motiva Port Arthur refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, was continuing operations at a reduced rate.
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Postby Mean Scenester » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:27 am

Logan, you must be the only idiot rubbing his hands with relish over the potential havoc this hurricane is going create, let alone the lives that are likely to be lost.

But it suits your agenda, so fuck those poor bastards, right? Glad you've got your priorities straight. Save the Earth and screw its inhabitants. Gotcha. What a mensch you are.
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:03 pm

Mean Scenester wrote:Logan, you must be the only idiot rubbing his hands with relish over the potential havoc this hurricane is going create, let alone the lives that are likely to be lost.

But it suits your agenda, so fuck those poor bastards, right? Glad you've got your priorities straight. Save the Earth and screw its inhabitants. Gotcha. What a mensch you are.

My agenda is to get more people to understand the real reasons why gas prices go up. So how about we all cut back on our driving this week and give the money we save to the relief efforts in Texas? That way we are giving back to our community twice: Once by putting downward pressure on the price of gas in tough economic times, and again by helping those in need due to Ike.
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:24 pm

beesorry wrote:There is no way when oil prices rise in reaction to a potential hurricane that it is based on anything but speculation. Give it up will ya.

Another data point for your homework project:

Ike Forces Shutdown of 19% of Refining Capacity, Limiting Fuel
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike, which will make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, caused more than 19 percent of the nations refining capacity to close and may limit fuel deliveries across the country.

At least 13 refineries in Texas were shutting down as Ike approached. Gulf Coast refineries and ports are the source of about 50 percent of the fuel and crude used in the eastern half of the U.S. Plants operated by Exxon Mobil Corp., Valero Energy Corp., ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell Plc were affected.

Gasoline shortages may occur across the southern U.S. up to Washington because of the closures caused by Hurricane Gustav and now Ike, Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability at the U.S. Department of Energy, said on a conference call.

``We expect to see constrained supplies of refined products,'' he said. ``The administration will utilize every tool at our disposal to lessen the likelihood of limited fuel supplies,'' including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
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Postby Sophia Kitty » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:27 pm

It's much easier to drive away from a hurricane than it is to peddle away from a hurricane.
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:33 pm

Sophia Kitty wrote:It's much easier to drive away from a hurricane than it is to peddle away from a hurricane.

That depends on if the road is choked with cars or not.
Image[Traffic crawls along highway 59 northbound as residents try to flee in front of Hurricane Rita September 22, 2005 in Houston, Texas.]
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Postby Sophia Kitty » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:39 pm

Why don't we air drop you and your magical bicycle into the eye of the storm and time how long it takes you to get back to the Harmony Tavern? We'll take bets and roll dice on your chances...it'll be super-duper fun, you cycolific-fucking retard.
Last edited by Sophia Kitty on Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Matt Logan » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:07 pm

Sophia Kitty wrote:Why don't we air drop you and your magical bicycle into the eye of the storm and time how long it takes you to get back to the Harmony Tavern? We'll take bets and roll dice on your chances...it'll be super-duper fun, you cycolific-fucking retard.

Alrighty then, I have made the arrangements for the air drop. See you all about the first week of October.

Beesorry: I'll be expecting that homework assignment to be completed when I get back.

Until then,

- Drive Safely!
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Re: going up?.....gas prices, that is...

Postby Matt Logan » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:38 am

What a lovely ride it was up from the gulf coast after a spectacular heli-drop into the eye of Hurricane Gustav.

Beesorry - do you have your report ready? I am particularly interested in your analysis of the multiple runs on gas stations that occurred in the SE.

When I reviewed the gas price trends over the last month I was overjoyed to see consumption actually drop by 5.5% compared to last year. And lo and behold, prices started a freefall, resulting in this delightful news story today:

Gas sinks to 3-year low
Gasoline prices in 42-day, 37% decline, as oil prices and fuel consumption continue to fall.

And just look at the current demand curve:
Image
at the lowest point US consumption was 500,000 barrels per day lower than the previous year. That is in the ballpark of what I predicted would be needed in order to curb the price increase.

And here is the price curve:
Image
Note how the drop in prices correlates strongly with timing of the drop in demand.

Of course, you gas price whiners are simply going to say that oil companies are keeping the price low right now in order to influence the election. Well then tell me you whiners: is it the oil companies that chose to reduce the demand?
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Re: going up?.....gas prices, that is...

Postby beesorry » Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:42 pm

Logan
Remember ohhh about 35 40 pages ago back when this thread was not the monstro tribute to your egos ability to repeat itself endlessly. I posted then in the late spring early summer that for sure no matter what market forces were at work no matter how many stupid ass oil company charts you put up and no matter what the famous fat assed motorist did that GAS PRICES WOULD FALL IN TIME FOR THE ELECTION. And looky looky why they sure nuff did.
I will be endlessly entertained by the following rationalizations you are sure to put forth as I have by the other BS you have posted.
Its as sure a thing as the oil companies fat assed monopoly doing what they can to get the best friends they ever had installed into office again.
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